Aviation Global Expansion

The last few blogs we have been discussing possible reasons for a pilots shortage and actions that have taken place recently that can have effect on the industries future. We will keep on this similar topic and continue to look at factors that can play a role in aviation. Specifically the growth of aviation and airlines in other countries that are making for a more competitive global market for airlines and pilots. With much fluctuation in our own economy other countries have been growing and developing, leading the way to change in the aviation industry.

            Some countries that have been experiencing a growth aviation and air travel are China, Japan, India, and Africa. There has also be a noted increase in Middle East air traffic servicing as a midway location between the Far East and Far West. Locations such as Dubai has seen a noticeable increase in air travelers that have been using their airports as a transfer hub. For many countries innovation is the driving force behind its recent success striving to do something new to break the trend that has been set for decades. Not only are companies thinking in new ways, much of its growth is because of a growing number of people in these countries are using air travel as a means of transportation. These countries have had a rising number in the middle class which can lead to higher amounts of air travel. Adding to the numbers is the fact that these countries' economies have grown greatly within the last few years. With the economies rising there are more business class flying as well. Airline Leader journal suggested that there are three innovative ways that the Asian airlines are highly successful: 1) Independent cross-border joint venture LCCs, allowing the creation of regional, multinational brands. 2) Economically sustainable long-haul low-cost operators.  3) Successful low-cost subsidiaries of full service airlines and the resulting use of multiple brands (Airline Leader, 2012). This allows for a competitive but friendly competition, giving a company more options other than merging or closing out. With the distances between these countries and agreement between them it enables the airlines there to operate as more of a regional airline instead of a international airline. With this Asian countries thriving in the aviation industry it is having effect on other countries that are around it such as Korea and Japan, helping maintain or slightly improve their numbers. In China alone between 1992 and 2012, weekly available seat-kilometers (a measure of how much planes are flying) rose from 351 to 8,701. The amount of airports being used has also increase notably from 199 to 1,208 (Davis, 2013). As of now the growth that is being accounted for in these countries are from what they have been able to do domestically, which is surprising, when taking into account how rapid the growth has been in this short of time. Many figures that are projected are what they think they can do domestically, However, many projections are not forecasting if these Asian countries expanding Globally and start pursing more international flights. 

            With these airlines skyrocket growth and clever innovation they are willing to pay for a quality pilot, one that has been trained under some of the highest standards. Not only is the pay double what most captains top out in the states they add bounces and flight benefits. Bounces can include moving bounces that helps the transition between countries not only providing money but assistance in locating a home to live in. Kent Krizman is a prime example of what many pilots feel that have been in the major airlines hoping for a promotions. He has flown for American Airlines for the past 15 years and has over 20,000 hours with the company and was still a first officer, with promotions not coming for another 5 years. Kent is now moving overseas to fly for a Chinese airline and will be promoted to a captains seat within months after beginning, with most captains starting around $190,000. The time required to be promoted to captain is set differently in China because of the low requirements to be promoted. Not only is the pay near double but the jobs are available and pilots are wanted. In China alone there is an estimated growth from 24,000 to 40,000 pilots by 2015 (Baribeau & Wang, 2012). It is easier for American pilots to transfer because of the international requirements for English that air traffic controllers must know. However, China is quickly developing more flight training programs and are allowing universities to accept more trainees. For now Chinese airlines are looking for foreign pilots to fill the needs but will eventually look to their own people to fill the positions needed in the future.

            Globally Air transportation industry makes up $539 billion of the worlds GDP in 2010, and this is only what it claims for itself. That number does not include other areas that it has direct or indirect effect on, in 2011 it was figured just for tourism aviation was responsible for 34.5 million jobs just in tourism alone. The aviation industry plays a larger role than we may think, to put it into perspective it came in higher than pharmaceuticals $445 billion, textiles $236 billion and the automotive industries $484 billion (ATAG, 2012). This is on a global scale, the past decades larger markets in aviation have remained fairly stable in US, Europe, and Japan. With this recent rapid growth in less developed countries aviation on international scale will continue to grow as other countries continue to build and develop. Aviations GDP will continue to grow in the coming years as more and more countries economies grow and aviation begins to take off with new innovative ways.

            I do know that there is a growing market in these countries and are excited about it. Feeling wanted by a company gives you a sense of worth and knowing that the reward is high only adds to the appeal of these jobs overseas. There is much to consider when looking at these overseas because of the locations and the fact they are in other countries such things that you have become accustom to would change currency, language, way of life, etc. Family that you have here you would not be able to see as often or frequently as well as friends. On the other hand being a pilot and always looking for the best opportunity possible, flying for a foreign company sounds awfully good and extremely appealing to me. It is wise to keep all options open to further your chances of succeeding in aviation. With much higher pay in a shorter amount of time along with the added benefits and experiencing a culture unknown to me are all positives in my mind. One of the main factors is the value that I would be held at, not just a number on a list waiting in a long line. A value that I feel wanted and needed, a value that will benefit me in the short term and long term, a value that is missing in the airlines here.

References

Airline Leader (2012). Asian aviation: exponential change and innovation with global impact.                   Online Journal. Retrieved from http://www.airlineleader.com/this-months-highlights/asian-aviation-exponential-change-and-innovation-with-global-impact

Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) (2012). Economic Growth. Aviation’s global economic                    profile in 2010. Online Journal. Retrieved from http://aviationbenefitsbeyondborders.org/economic-growth/overview.

Davies, Alex (2013, August 29). Chart Shows China's Insane Aviation Boom - Business Insider.              Retrieved September 28, 2013, from http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-shows-chinas-insane-aviation-boom-2013-8

Jasmine Wang & Simone Baribeau (2012, February 27). China Lures U.S. Pilots Tired of 14-                    Year Wait for Airline Captain’s Seat - Bloomberg. Retrieved September 28, 2013, from                      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-27/china-lures-u-s-pilots-tired-of-14-year-wait-for-captain-s-seat.html

Lendon, Brad (2012, June 4). U.S. pilots find high demand, high pay overseas – This Just In -                  CNN.com Blogs. Retrieved September 28, 2013, from http://news.blogs.cnn.com/                               2012/06/04/u-s-pilots-find-high-demand-high-pay-overseas/

Short Pilots

            One factor that could lead to a pilot shortage is new regulations that are set in place. First one being the age for required retirement for pilots is 65 years old, this was recently changed a few years ago that once stood at 60 years of age to retirement. There are a large number of pilots that are currently within the 60-65 year range that take up most of the higher seats at major airlines. In theory with is going to create a large void on the top end of the major airlines. Major airlines will look to fill there voids by looking into the regional airlines for their large number of available pilots that are looking to move to the major carriers. There are very few pilots that wish to make a lifelong career in the regional airlines. Regionals are more of a stepping stone a way to build time and pad their log books. Throughout this last decade the regionals have grown a considerable amount. Financially major airlines can provide a better salary for the pilots and with time can become a very lucrative option. With pay better the life style improves, it is where many pilots wish to be at some point of their careers becoming a captain for a major airline and move as high as they can on the seniority list. Second reason is the new regulation 14 CFR 61.160 that has recently been established. The new regulation requires either a 1000 hours total time or 1500 hours total time depending on your training with an ATP to be considered for a 121 operation; Whereas before the only requirement was Commercial certificate and 250 hours total time. This new regulation can have had effect on current and future aspiring pilots. Pilots in training now with have to continue their entry level jobs until obtaining the required fight time. Whereas future aspiring pilots may now feel less inspired to make a career with piloting and may only consider piloting as a hobby or something they will work for later on in life. For college route tuition and training bills in excess of $100,000 on average, this is just the beginning, even after completing your training you will still need at least 700 - 800 more hours before one can interview for an airline (Goyer, 2011). This could cause a stagnate point at the entry level piloting jobs such as flight instructing, with instructors more reluctant to move on to other jobs. Stated in a NTSB study Glenn Pew from avweb explains that the figures are 'predicted as the result of both retirements and industry growth. Participants also told the NTSB that fewer military pilots would be leaving their positions for jobs with the airlines and, because they see it as an economic cul-de-sac, careers in aviation are attracting fewer college students' (Pew, 2013).

           

            If there was a pilot shortage there could be multiple ramifications that are a result. One concern that has been noted is the amount of pilots that have to meet requirements. With required minimums higher, the cost of training rising, and the poor pay at an entry level, the appeal to one considering a career in aviation does not look as promising or as joyous as it may have once been. One ramification that comes to mind first that could have a positive effect is companies instilling a development program or special incentive program that is appealing to possible prospects. There are other airlines in foreign countries that have already had this in place and should be considered by airlines within the United States to remain competitive. There has been a rapid growth in the aviation industry in other developing countries and they are using ways to persuade U.S. trained pilots to join their companies, not only providing them with much assistance to get established in the new country but offering them a considerable amount of money to fly for them. A development program could be used in multiple different ways. One could be an agreement that if the airline pays or trains a prospective pilot from the beginning until they meet minimum requirements and ensures the have a job with the company once they are done, with the pilot agreeing to a contract for the services for a agreed amount of time. Another option could be a loan service by the airlines that give the students a loan at an lower interest rates than banks or agreeing to start paying for your training once you have reached a certain point in their training. An incentive program could be an award system that could start as early as the training process. When achieving the next highest level of certificate the company could send a reward or have a signing bounce if a pilot is hired by them. It does not have to always be money there can be other ways to indulge pilots for someone in training it could be as simple as providing the necessary reading and training material, or something that could be rewarding in another area like a short weekend vacation or flight benefits. There are endless things to use as a reward for the pilots to help keep them motivated throughout and after training. Another ramification that could be caused by a pilot shortage is higher wages for entry level jobs or a quicker way to achieve a higher pay rate. Right now an entry level job in the airlines is anywhere from $10,000 - $22,000 a year. With the pay only slowly increasing until they have reached a captains status for a major airline, achieving captain status can take many years. If the made the entry wages higher this can improve the chances of luring in more pilots. This can be a positive and a negative for aviation. Higher wages for pilots will improve morale for entry level jobs and shine a better light for the airlines. With lower income it is a turn off for many prospective pilots that are looking for a career in the airlines. On the other hand, higher wages will make for a more competitive market as well as more competitive pilots seeking these jobs. The negative could cause for a smaller amount of pilots because the companies cannot afford the higher pay of the pilots and still maintain a larger fleet. It could possibly be as simple as better managing of the company.

            There has been many times in the past that a pilot shortage was a possibility or something that is about to happen. Being an industry that is regulated this is one of the few occupations that rely on your health and age. Aviation is like any other market there are ups and downs, there are years that turnout very well and years that look like it is the end of an industry. These ups and downs are just cycles that everything must go through, what sustains is the ability to adjust to times that may not have a glamorous outcome. There are many reasons and many factors that play a role in a potential pilot shortage; On the other hand this could be another situation that is over-exaggerated by the media. There are many things today that the media proclaims that society clings onto because of how possible it may seem or how realistic they seem. Many pilots that I have personally spoken to all stated the something; they've said it before and we managed, were still flying for these companies, like stated above a possibility that there will be considerable amount of pilots retiring within the next few years which could leave a sizable gap. However, it is not going to happen overnight and the airlines are fully aware of statuses of their own employees. Many news outlets react to the possibility as if it is happening all at once or without warning. Major and Regional airlines are expecting changes and will take the necessary steps to ensure the transition is as seamless as possible. Major airlines will be looking to the regionals to help fill the need of pilots; this will mean more of a loss for the regional airlines than the majors. With the new additions to the major airlines this will affect the regionals and will need to be looking for new options to now fill their own seats. Many of the reports that is published by the media are simply looking at an estimated loss not looking at the available pilots or pilots to be. Brant Harrison are regional pilot suggests that "following massive furloughs and restructuring at the airlines, the landscape is more of a basic economic curve that 'is finally getting back to where the supply is matching the demand.' They are expecting an airline growth of 1.4 percent a year (at best) based on the amount of new aircraft ordered, however reports are not taking into considerations of older aircraft that will need to be replaced (Pew, 2013).  Yes the amount of private pilots has decreased 17% since the early 2000s however the amount of certificate commercial pilots have remained steady with only minor fluctuation. "This strikes me as a cynical effort on the part of some in the industry to cry wolf and use scare tactics in an intent to influence the (FAA) when they write the final rule on pilot experience to weaken it," CBS News aviation and safety expert Captain Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger (Kennedy, 2012). What this may mean is nothing less than a hiring cycle for many aviation companies because it starts with the major airlines it will affect everything that is below. Much like other industry there are years that require more movement than what has be normal for the years leading up to this point. The number of needed pilots may be higher than what we have become accustom to from recent memory.

           

References

Goyer, Robert. (2011, November 07). "Why the Coming Pilot Shortage Isn't Creating Lots of New Pilots . . . Yet. Flying Magazine.Web. Retrieved September 22, 2013. <http:/www.flyingmag.com/blogs/going-direct/why-coming-pilot-shortage-isnt-creating-lots-new-pilots-yet>

Kennedy , Bruce. (2012, November 12). Is the airline pilot shortage real?- MSN Money. Web. Retrieved September 22, 2013, from http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=941dc807-bfe1-4e9f-9410-07c3787ef094

Pew , Glen. (2013, May 23). The Pilot Shortage Crisis Is Nigh! … Or Not - AVweb Features Article. Retrieved September 22, 2013, from http://www.avweb.com/news/features/pilot_shortage_crisis_forecasts_208746-1.html

Lee, Marc C. (2011, March 22). Pilot Outlook 2010-2029: A Shortage Looms | PlaneAndPilotMag.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013, from http://www.planeandpilotmag.com/proficiency/careers/pilot-outlook-2010-2029-a-shortage-looms.html

FAR 61.160 Review

If the EMU student majoring in aviation completed their instrument and commercial certifications under 141 the time requirements are: 1,000 hours total time, 21 years of age, 50 hours of multi-engine time, and 200 hours cross-country time. However, we can only receive a restricted airline transport pilot certificate until completing 1,500 hours total time. The rule has exceptions to obtain a co-pilot certificate for military pilots who have flown at least 750 hours, graduates of four-year colleges who have flown at least 1,000 hours and graduates of two-year colleges who have flown at least 1,250 hours. Other parts of the rule include: Requiring at least 1,000 flight hours as co-pilot to serve as a captain for a U.S. airline. Enhancing training with 50 hours of multi-engine flight experience (Jansen, 2013).

            One issue that does exist with the following regulation is the amount of students that have already completed their instrument and commercial training under part 61. It can also be a problem for the people that are in the middle of their training under part 61 and now have to consider changing their training to 141. Being in this situation can lead a person to feel mislead because they did not know of the ramifications of the new regulation. Another issue that it can exist is the minimum time requirements, because of the higher times required students have to find more opportunities to meet the required times for specific areas. 

            There was a few changes from the original proposal to the final rule. Fist adding that associates degree within aviation or 1500 hours total time is acceptable for an R-ATP, as well as only 200 hours of cross country time for those who are eligible. The final rule more clearly defined the requirements of a 141 schooling operation and the requirements that are need to be certified. Minimum for academic credit hours were raised to 30. Privileges of an ATP certificate and SIC privileges in flag and supplemental operations requiring three or more pilots to hold a first-class medical certificate. FFS time for multi-engine was raised to 25 hours. Military PIC time in a multi-engine turbine-powered, fixed-wing airplane in an operation requiring more than one pilot up to 500 hours.

            I find the new regulation to be both beneficial and as well as challenging. The benefits are the lower time requirements by attending college for a degree in aviation. This will help the chances for someone who has a degree in aviation become eligible for a job soon than someone that did their flight training separate from college, this puts students that studied aviation at a great advantage. I have decided to do all my training 141 before this regulation was final, allowing me to continue on the path I have chosen. The only challenge is being able to build time in the areas that are required. Now with the minimum time being higher it will be more time consuming to reach them.

            Some ramifications that may face the regional airlines is the amount of required pilots. In the early stages of the new requirement there may be many pilots that were available that will have to look at other options. Not only could the new regulation limit the availability of pilots, it could as defer future pilot from beginning or continuing their training because of the high amount of hours required. This could lead to higher prices for the pilots, which in short term sounds great for the pilots, however, in the long term could lead to less businesses providing less opportunity for the pilots that will have limited options if they are existent. Terry Maxon makes several key observations regarding this new regulation, "a large group of pilots in their 50s and early 60s approach the mandatory retirement age of 65. The supply of pilots trained in the military continues to shrink. The high cost of going through private pilot training discourages potential pilots. The career stagnation of more than a decade that slowed new hiring at many airlines. Pay freezes, pay cuts, contract concessions and other factors have made the profession less attractive (Dallas News, 2013)." This is only a possibility, therefore the results could be drastically different.                

            I feel that FAR 61.160 was just a reactive measure. I strongly feel that the regulation will not improve the safety of the industry. Jeff Schneider makes a strong point that the regulation will have no effect on safety, "Through analyzing more than 40 NTSB accident reports from 1991-2012, including Part 91, 121 and 135 scheduled flights... There was no direct correlation between a single individual’s inexperience and overall safety of the aircraft. Instead, it was the combination of flight-crew experience that correlated with fatal accidents. Since the majority of aircraft are flown by a crew, not just one pilot, it is the culmination of both pilots’ mistakes that leads to mishaps (Aviationweek, 2013)."  The reason behind this thinking is that for most pilots we will be doing flight instructing or working for a smaller company flying the same routes only going a limited distance away from their base. Having someone fly to the practice are for an extra year does not necessarily mean you are gaining meaningful experience or time. Not only is the aircraft that are being used meant for training, they are very limited in range, altitude, and speed, most likely pilots will not be flying them professionally for an airline. Not to say that the time gained doing so is wasted but how much are the pilots learning and how much are they gaining from these flights? Quality over quantity is what should be considered when trying to improve a situation. Someone can only learn and experience a limited amount doing the same thing on a daily basis. The new regulations are expected to have the greatest impact on safety at smaller, regional air carriers, where entry-level pilots are typically hired with only a few hundred hours (Lowy, 2013). If anything I see this regulation only slightly lowering accidents or incidents, not enough to have a significant effect on the industry.

                                                           

                                                                        References

Jansen, Bart (July 10, 2013). FAA requires more pilot training after Colgan crash. Online                          retrieved from http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2013/07/10/faa-pilot-                         training-colgan-crash/2505499/. Last Accessed September 15, 2013.

           

Lowy, Joan (July 10,2013). FAA Expands Commercial Airline Co-Pilot Qualifications. Online                 retrieved from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/10/faa-commerical-pilot-                           qualifications_n_3573940.html. Last Accessed September 15, 2013.

Maxon, Terry. (2013, July 10). FAA will require airline pilots to have at least 1,500 flight                          hours.Dallas news [Dallas]. Retrieved from http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/                              2013/07/15604.html/. Last Accessed September 15, 2013

Schneider, Jeff (September 11, 2013 ). Viewpoint: New Pilot Requirements Are Misguided.                     Online retrieved from http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/                         awx_09_11_2013_p0-615324.xml. Last Accessed September 15, 2013.

Introduction

Hello my name is Steven Stryker, I am currently enrolled in Eastern Michigan University majoring in Aviation Flight Technology. After this semester I will be complete with all my required classes and will only need to complete my flight training. This is my third year at EMU, I transferred from Washtenaw Community College after attending there for two years and receiving my associates degree in Liberal Arts. However I did not decide what I was going into until I completed my first year of college.

I grew up in the New Hudson and Howell area, in Michigan. I had many different interests and passions growing up. My first dream was to design cars, I love cars and I loved creating from the ground up. I took various art classes throughout the years trying to improve my drawing ability. My love for cars remained and I found myself becoming a sponsored race car driver for several years, my goals quickly turned from a car engineer to a race car driver. As the years went on, reality set in, it was becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a high level of success with limited funds. We decided to put the racing career on hold. During this time I started learning the bass guitar, guitar, and piano. I played for several local bands and a couple bands with some friends for fun. After enjoying some success I considered pursing music as a career. Once again reality of becoming successful was extremely difficult. During this time I had a life changing event, I experienced flying for the first time.

Flying used to be my greatest fear. I used to be terrified of flying, just the thought made me panic. It wasn't until I was 14 years old before I worked up the courage to fly. I had signed up for a missions trip to Costa Rica to help less fortunate people for a couple weeks, putting in a lot of time and money there was no backing out. Right when we turned on the runway and took off I was hooked! I was flying! Every aspect of flight from that point on was fascinating to me and I wanted to know more. Once returning from my trip, I quickly got as much information about flying as I could. I became an AOPA member and read every issue of there flight training magazine. About a year or so later I took an introductory flight a Livingston County Airport in Howell, in a Cessna 152. Once again, I was blown away that I was in the air flying! Then a dream become something that was possible. Unfortunately, the cost of flight training was a concern for me and I didn't start training. At the time I put in the back of my mind, keeping it an option for an expensive hobby or career someday. As I began college, I struggled what direction and what passion to follow. At the end of my freshman year I visited Eagle Flight Center as well as a couple other college flight programs and decided EMU flight program made the most sense for me.

I am currently working on my instrument training and plan on finishing flying within the next year. I plan on continuing my training and Eagle Flight Center and eventually teach there. I currently work for Avflight a FBO on Willow Run Airport. I have had a great opportunity to meet a lot of pilots and managers of companies, that could lead to future opportunities. My goal for flying is to fly as many different aircraft as I can. I plan on one day flying for a major airline or a corporate business, while continuing to help grow aviation in other ways within the community. Aviation is something that I will always be involved in and will always give back to.