Short Pilots

            One factor that could lead to a pilot shortage is new regulations that are set in place. First one being the age for required retirement for pilots is 65 years old, this was recently changed a few years ago that once stood at 60 years of age to retirement. There are a large number of pilots that are currently within the 60-65 year range that take up most of the higher seats at major airlines. In theory with is going to create a large void on the top end of the major airlines. Major airlines will look to fill there voids by looking into the regional airlines for their large number of available pilots that are looking to move to the major carriers. There are very few pilots that wish to make a lifelong career in the regional airlines. Regionals are more of a stepping stone a way to build time and pad their log books. Throughout this last decade the regionals have grown a considerable amount. Financially major airlines can provide a better salary for the pilots and with time can become a very lucrative option. With pay better the life style improves, it is where many pilots wish to be at some point of their careers becoming a captain for a major airline and move as high as they can on the seniority list. Second reason is the new regulation 14 CFR 61.160 that has recently been established. The new regulation requires either a 1000 hours total time or 1500 hours total time depending on your training with an ATP to be considered for a 121 operation; Whereas before the only requirement was Commercial certificate and 250 hours total time. This new regulation can have had effect on current and future aspiring pilots. Pilots in training now with have to continue their entry level jobs until obtaining the required fight time. Whereas future aspiring pilots may now feel less inspired to make a career with piloting and may only consider piloting as a hobby or something they will work for later on in life. For college route tuition and training bills in excess of $100,000 on average, this is just the beginning, even after completing your training you will still need at least 700 - 800 more hours before one can interview for an airline (Goyer, 2011). This could cause a stagnate point at the entry level piloting jobs such as flight instructing, with instructors more reluctant to move on to other jobs. Stated in a NTSB study Glenn Pew from avweb explains that the figures are 'predicted as the result of both retirements and industry growth. Participants also told the NTSB that fewer military pilots would be leaving their positions for jobs with the airlines and, because they see it as an economic cul-de-sac, careers in aviation are attracting fewer college students' (Pew, 2013).

           

            If there was a pilot shortage there could be multiple ramifications that are a result. One concern that has been noted is the amount of pilots that have to meet requirements. With required minimums higher, the cost of training rising, and the poor pay at an entry level, the appeal to one considering a career in aviation does not look as promising or as joyous as it may have once been. One ramification that comes to mind first that could have a positive effect is companies instilling a development program or special incentive program that is appealing to possible prospects. There are other airlines in foreign countries that have already had this in place and should be considered by airlines within the United States to remain competitive. There has been a rapid growth in the aviation industry in other developing countries and they are using ways to persuade U.S. trained pilots to join their companies, not only providing them with much assistance to get established in the new country but offering them a considerable amount of money to fly for them. A development program could be used in multiple different ways. One could be an agreement that if the airline pays or trains a prospective pilot from the beginning until they meet minimum requirements and ensures the have a job with the company once they are done, with the pilot agreeing to a contract for the services for a agreed amount of time. Another option could be a loan service by the airlines that give the students a loan at an lower interest rates than banks or agreeing to start paying for your training once you have reached a certain point in their training. An incentive program could be an award system that could start as early as the training process. When achieving the next highest level of certificate the company could send a reward or have a signing bounce if a pilot is hired by them. It does not have to always be money there can be other ways to indulge pilots for someone in training it could be as simple as providing the necessary reading and training material, or something that could be rewarding in another area like a short weekend vacation or flight benefits. There are endless things to use as a reward for the pilots to help keep them motivated throughout and after training. Another ramification that could be caused by a pilot shortage is higher wages for entry level jobs or a quicker way to achieve a higher pay rate. Right now an entry level job in the airlines is anywhere from $10,000 - $22,000 a year. With the pay only slowly increasing until they have reached a captains status for a major airline, achieving captain status can take many years. If the made the entry wages higher this can improve the chances of luring in more pilots. This can be a positive and a negative for aviation. Higher wages for pilots will improve morale for entry level jobs and shine a better light for the airlines. With lower income it is a turn off for many prospective pilots that are looking for a career in the airlines. On the other hand, higher wages will make for a more competitive market as well as more competitive pilots seeking these jobs. The negative could cause for a smaller amount of pilots because the companies cannot afford the higher pay of the pilots and still maintain a larger fleet. It could possibly be as simple as better managing of the company.

            There has been many times in the past that a pilot shortage was a possibility or something that is about to happen. Being an industry that is regulated this is one of the few occupations that rely on your health and age. Aviation is like any other market there are ups and downs, there are years that turnout very well and years that look like it is the end of an industry. These ups and downs are just cycles that everything must go through, what sustains is the ability to adjust to times that may not have a glamorous outcome. There are many reasons and many factors that play a role in a potential pilot shortage; On the other hand this could be another situation that is over-exaggerated by the media. There are many things today that the media proclaims that society clings onto because of how possible it may seem or how realistic they seem. Many pilots that I have personally spoken to all stated the something; they've said it before and we managed, were still flying for these companies, like stated above a possibility that there will be considerable amount of pilots retiring within the next few years which could leave a sizable gap. However, it is not going to happen overnight and the airlines are fully aware of statuses of their own employees. Many news outlets react to the possibility as if it is happening all at once or without warning. Major and Regional airlines are expecting changes and will take the necessary steps to ensure the transition is as seamless as possible. Major airlines will be looking to the regionals to help fill the need of pilots; this will mean more of a loss for the regional airlines than the majors. With the new additions to the major airlines this will affect the regionals and will need to be looking for new options to now fill their own seats. Many of the reports that is published by the media are simply looking at an estimated loss not looking at the available pilots or pilots to be. Brant Harrison are regional pilot suggests that "following massive furloughs and restructuring at the airlines, the landscape is more of a basic economic curve that 'is finally getting back to where the supply is matching the demand.' They are expecting an airline growth of 1.4 percent a year (at best) based on the amount of new aircraft ordered, however reports are not taking into considerations of older aircraft that will need to be replaced (Pew, 2013).  Yes the amount of private pilots has decreased 17% since the early 2000s however the amount of certificate commercial pilots have remained steady with only minor fluctuation. "This strikes me as a cynical effort on the part of some in the industry to cry wolf and use scare tactics in an intent to influence the (FAA) when they write the final rule on pilot experience to weaken it," CBS News aviation and safety expert Captain Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger (Kennedy, 2012). What this may mean is nothing less than a hiring cycle for many aviation companies because it starts with the major airlines it will affect everything that is below. Much like other industry there are years that require more movement than what has be normal for the years leading up to this point. The number of needed pilots may be higher than what we have become accustom to from recent memory.

           

References

Goyer, Robert. (2011, November 07). "Why the Coming Pilot Shortage Isn't Creating Lots of New Pilots . . . Yet. Flying Magazine.Web. Retrieved September 22, 2013. <http:/www.flyingmag.com/blogs/going-direct/why-coming-pilot-shortage-isnt-creating-lots-new-pilots-yet>

Kennedy , Bruce. (2012, November 12). Is the airline pilot shortage real?- MSN Money. Web. Retrieved September 22, 2013, from http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=941dc807-bfe1-4e9f-9410-07c3787ef094

Pew , Glen. (2013, May 23). The Pilot Shortage Crisis Is Nigh! … Or Not - AVweb Features Article. Retrieved September 22, 2013, from http://www.avweb.com/news/features/pilot_shortage_crisis_forecasts_208746-1.html

Lee, Marc C. (2011, March 22). Pilot Outlook 2010-2029: A Shortage Looms | PlaneAndPilotMag.com. Retrieved September 22, 2013, from http://www.planeandpilotmag.com/proficiency/careers/pilot-outlook-2010-2029-a-shortage-looms.html